Trump and Putin Draw Closer, as Europe Fades from Global Affairs

February 14, 2025 – Pierre Lellouche
Le Figaro

Trump had vowed to end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours.” He has done so in a month, following a 90-minute phone call with Putin on February 12—on the latter’s terms. The negotiation will take place exclusively between Americans and Russians. Russia secures its two main war objectives: Ukraine will never join NATO, and Russia retains militarily conquered territories in Crimea and the Donbas. Economic ties between the U.S. and Russia will resume, with sanctions set to be lifted as well.

The biggest losers of this historic shift are the Europeans—along with the Ukrainians, of course. Entering the war driven by emotion and legitimate outrage, they merely followed a hesitant, waning Biden administration that itself failed to define clear war aims beyond avoiding “World War III” (as Biden put it) while insisting that “nothing in Ukraine would be decided without Ukraine.” Slogans, however, were not enough. Ignoring Clausewitz’s fundamental lesson—“the political objective is the goal, war is the means; a means without a goal is inconceivable”—NATO allies never defined any coherent purpose in their proxy war against Russia, apart from the vague mantra: “as long as necessary.”

Throughout this debacle, the U.S. refused to admit Ukraine into NATO while maintaining the illusion that membership was still an option. This allowed them to avoid negotiating a neutral status for Kyiv with Russia. The result? Neither NATO membership nor neutrality. After three years of devastating yet futile war, Ukraine remains outside NATO. Meanwhile, Europeans considering military engagement in Ukraine under post-ceasefire “security guarantees” would do so without NATO’s Article 5 protection, as U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently confirmed—meaning at their own risk, without American backing. In short, such guarantees, whatever is claimed, will never materialize.

With a new U.S. president embracing a harsh brand of nationalist isolationism, Europeans now find themselves duped. Having poured €150 billion into the conflict, lost access to cheap Russian gas, and forfeited billions in investments, they are not only sidelined from peace negotiations but also expected to assume unrealistic security commitments—on top of the €700 billion Ukraine reconstruction bill they cannot afford. Europe is being erased from global affairs, including its own. This is nothing short of a historic turning point in the 21st century. Adding insult to injury, Ukraine will soon hold presidential elections, likely leading to Zelensky’s departure—something Russia sought from the outset.

This disastrous war, which has ravaged Ukraine, killed or wounded over a million people, and displaced eight million refugees, could have been avoided. It could have ended as early as March-April 2022 when Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, mediated by Turkey, were close to success. Yet, it dragged on for three more years, despite the clear reality: Ukraine, with its dwindling 30 million population against Russia’s 145 million, was never going to reclaim lost territories. Its ability to fight depended entirely on U.S. arms supplies, as European arsenals were empty. Even after the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive of June 2023 made territorial reconquest an illusion, and even when Trump halted U.S. arms shipments for six months, Europeans—following Biden—clung to “as long as necessary” as their only policy.

As for France, its declining global influence is again evident in Ukraine, mirroring its setbacks in Africa and the Middle East. Macron initially engaged in endless phone calls with Putin, then in June 2022 urged allies “not to humiliate Russia,” only to reverse course a year later, escalating militarily to the point of suggesting sending French troops to Ukraine—an implausible move given France’s financial constraints. The priority now, as military leaders say, is a vital “retex” (return on experience). France must analyze its repeated mistakes and prepare for an increasingly difficult European future.

The hasty U.S.-Russia agreement taking shape is unlikely to secure lasting peace in Europe. As historian Jacques Bainville warned in 1919 about the Treaty of Versailles, “the worst outcome is to close the wound while leaving the infection inside.” That is precisely what may happen: a war-torn, economically shattered, politically unstable, yet heavily armed Ukraine on Europe’s doorstep. To make matters worse, the EU has promised Kyiv rapid accession. This is what awaits us—far from Ursula von der Leyen’s “Green Deal” and even further from Cold War-era American protection.

Europe must rethink everything, urgently rearm, and face its future head-on. And for France, despite political deadlock and €3 trillion in debt, standing firm remains imperative—once again.

Pierre Lellouche is the author of Engrenages. La guerre d’Ukraine et le basculement du monde (Odile Jacob, 2024).

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