ZIG ZAGS: TRUMP AND THE WAR IN UKRAINE

It’s already been a year since Donald Trump’s re‑election — yet the war in Ukraine, which he once claimed would be “resolved in 24 hours,” is still raging and soon enters its fifth year.

Trump enjoys painting himself as a global deal‑maker, treating the world like his playground. After stops in Congo, Armenia, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Cambodia, Gaza — and soon Morocco and Algeria — he paradoxically remains stymied by his “friend” Putin, whom he alternately pampers and threatens.

Since last February we’ve witnessed at least twenty zig‑zags — leaving Volodymyr Zelensky and his European backers showered in sharp reversals.

Here are some key turns:

• Feb 19, 2025: First Zig (pro‑Russia): Trump calls Zelensky a “dictator.”

• Feb 28: At the White House, Zelensky is publicly humiliated by Trump and Vance: “You don’t have the cards.”

• Mar 2: Trump suspends arms deliveries to Ukraine.

• Mar 5: Trump halts intelligence‑sharing with Ukraine.

• Mar 30: First Zag (pro‑Ukraine): Trump threatens Putin with sanctions “on all Russian oil.”

• Apr 24: Trump says: “Vladimir, stop! I disapprove of the Russian strikes on Kyiv.”

• Apr 26: Trump meets Zelensky at the Vatican, says Putin “is playing him”, threatens secondary banking sanctions.

• Apr 30: Ukraine offers its rare‑earths (previously promised to Europe) to the U.S.

• Jul 14: Trump issues a 50‑day cease‑fire ultimatum to Russia; by Jul 29 reduces it to 10 days, ending on Aug 8.

• Aug 8: Trump raises the idea of “territory swaps for the common good.”

• Aug 15: Surprise summit in Anchorage: warm reunion between Trump and Putin. Trump abandons the cease‑fire and sanctions idea, aligns with Putin’s peace framework.

• Aug 18: Another turn: Trump commits to security guarantees in Ukraine: “We will help them.”

• Late Aug: U.S. services cooperate with Ukraine to strike deep into Russian energy sites.

• Oct 12: Trump publicly mentions supplying Tomahawk missiles (2,400 km range) to Ukraine.

• Oct 16: U‑turn: announces a summit with Putin in Budapest.

• Oct 17: Reversal: retracts the Tomahawks plan citing risk of escalation; at the White House urges Zelensky to accept Putin’s conditions (withdrawal from Donbas): “Putin wants to end the war.”

• Oct 21: Another turn: Trump cancels the Budapest summit: “He doesn’t want to waste his time.”

• Oct 22: The main Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft are sanctioned.

The back‑and‑forth is staggering — but there are lessons. The Europeans have been sidelined in the Trump‑Putin dialogue. Despite high‑profile summits in Paris and Brussels, Europe’s role is reduced to funding Ukraine’s resistance. That leads to the controversial idea of seizing €140 billion of Russian funds in Brussels to finance the war for two years.

Putin seems unfazed by sanctions; meanwhile the deployment of Tomahawks by American crews could prompt an escalation that even Trump fears.

The new dynamic: Zelensky has finally accepted a cease‑fire along the current front line — which he had flatly rejected until now. That’s been Trump’s preferred solution from the start. But Putin still insists on the full Donbas — the prize his generals keep promising him.

Hence the stalemate. While Trump jets off to Asia, focusing on China and squeezing the Maduro regime in Venezuela… perhaps we’re headed for another zig?

Pierre Lellouche
10/29/25