THE IRAN WAR: LESSONS FROM A SHIPWRECK

The American-Iranian war is entering its fifth month and, already, this war has changed the world, upending military, political and economic balances of power across the planet.

At the outset, as so often: a double miscalculation on the part of American President Donald Trump, but also on the part of his ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The first: an overestimation of the weakness of the Islamic Republic. In the aftermath of October 7, Tehran had seen the Israelis destroy Hamas in Gaza and strike Hezbollah hard, the main weapon in its fight to the death against Israel. Decapitated after the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in September 2024, Hezbollah saw, the following month, hundreds of its cadres killed or wounded by “pagers” booby-trapped by Mossad. Added to these humiliating setbacks was the fall of its ally al-Assad in Syria. There then followed two genuine missile and drone wars between Israel and Iran — in October 2024 and June 2025 — which, once again, demonstrated an impressive Israeli superiority, both offensive and defensive — Iron Dome. Many experts, and not the least of them, such as Gilles Keppel, with whom I debated in October 2024 in Le Figaro Magazine, believed that Iran would experience the same decline as the former USSR after its defeat in Kabul. That was not at all my view, pointing in particular to the resilience of this people, its two-thousand-year history and its 3,000 missiles… It was in this context that the impressive uprising of the Iranian people against the regime erupted — January 2026 — followed by the brutal repression that ensued — 40,000 dead. All of which ultimately convinced the Trump team that the mullahs’ regime was on its last legs and that a targeted action could, like the spectacular abduction of Maduro in Caracas the previous May, finally lead to the fall of the mullahs and the liberation of a people held hostage for 47 years. The hubris of military power was at its peak…

From this first error flowed the second, although it is well known: capitulation, still less regime change, cannot be achieved through air strikes alone.

Despite the decapitation of its main leaders on February 28, despite 13,000 strikes on its military and nuclear sites and other strategic installations, the Islamic Republic held out and, above all, counterattacked: targeting Israel and American bases in the region, but above all destroying oil and gas facilities in neighboring Arab countries, the masterstroke being the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, imposed barely 6 days after the beginning of the war. Yet this strait is nothing less than the jugular vein of the world economy. Its closure deprives humanity of 25% of the energy it needs every day. Trump, without knowing it, had just given Iran a second atomic bomb: the ability to hold the entire Earth hostage at any moment and, in doing so, deter any inclination to attack it. The icing on the cake is that Hormuz will also become the regime’s cornucopia, with every ship passing through the strait being asked to pay, as they say in The Godfather, to make sure it can sail in complete safety. But, icing on the icing, the American-Iranian agreement signed by Trump amid the gilded splendor of Versailles on June 17 explicitly recognizes the “privatization” of the strait by Iran and therefore its de facto, and now de jure, annexation of the territorial waters of the Arab monarchies neighboring Iran. For what does point 5 of the famous Versailles agreement say?

“Upon signature of the present agreement, the Islamic Republic shall make every effort to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels, FREE OF CHARGE, FOR 60 DAYS, ONLY… Iran will enter into a dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman in order to define THE FUTURE MANAGEMENT AND MARITIME SERVICES in the Strait of Hormuz, in consultation with the other Gulf States, in accordance with international law.”

This calamitous wording, accepted by the Americans, has ultimately convinced the Revolutionary Guards, who now run the country, that Iran has already won its war against America and Israel. Without wasting any time, the Iranians therefore decided to apply point 5 of the Versailles agreement in their own way, by demanding that, from now on, all ships entering or leaving the strait be required to sail along the northern coast, Iran’s coast, rather than use the southern corridor, along the Omani coast, which periodically benefits from a US Navy escort. This week, three oil tankers belonging to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which had the bad idea of choosing American protection, were immediately bombed by “unidentified” missiles, that is to say Iranian ones. An episode that led to the resumption and intensification of American bombing against Iran, with, in retaliation, Iranian missile strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar… This at the very moment when, for an entire week, the funeral ceremonies of the former head of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were taking place.

Let us sum up:

Plan A, which aimed at regime change, has failed;

Plan B, which aimed at “the capitulation” of the Islamic Republic — Trump dixit —, has also failed;

Plan C, which sought to achieve the elimination of the Iranian nuclear program, or at least to place it under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is no longer even mentioned, having been postponed to distant deadlines and “technical” negotiations;

Plan D, now the main objective of the strange mixture of current negotiations and bombings, concerns not only the reopening, but above all the status of the strait, in order to restore freedom of navigation, which was the situation in the strait before February 28.

Problem: how can this be achieved?

Trump has indeed dangled the financial carrot, promising not only the lifting of sanctions, but also the payment of $23 billion in Iranian assets frozen in Western banks, even adding a lavish $300 billion package for the reconstruction of Iran, payable by… the Arab monarchies… themselves victims of Tehran’s strikes. But nothing works.

The Iranians know the electoral calendar for the November midterms perfectly well. They read the polls: two-thirds of Americans do not want this war. Yet reopening the strait by force would be a risky, large-scale ground operation that Trump will have great difficulty justifying, having been elected — and his Vice President with him — on the promise of putting an end to “endless wars” such as Iraq or Afghanistan. Not to mention that such an operation would require the mobilization of large quantities of sophisticated weapons that America needs against China…

The ideal, of course, would be to see the “moderates” Galibaf, Araghchi and Pezekian obtain from the new Supreme Leader, Moschtaba, authorization to find an arrangement, even a temporary one, if only to bring relief to millions of unemployed people and an economy bled dry. The problem is that these negotiators are publicly accused of treason, that they are insulted daily, and are even greeted with stones…

The strange truce is therefore likely to last, in the form of a war of attrition, alternating indirect negotiations via Qatar or Pakistan with missile exchanges, while trying to avoid another panic over supplies and the markets.

Although directly concerned, the Europeans are sheltering behind a deafening silence. Usually more expansive, Emmanuel Macron confined himself to a very short tweet announcing that he was sending our only aircraft carrier back to Toulon, the Americans and Iranians having, he said, reached an agreement that “represents an important step forward in favor of regional stability.” A few days earlier, Iran had made it known that the presence of France and other Europeans in the region was “complicating” things…

Pierre Lellouche — 10/7/26