TRUMP’S AMERICA ON THREE FRONTS

“I will stop the wars.” In his victory speech in Palm Beach, President-elect Donald Trump summarized his foreign policy vision in just a few words: protect America and avoid wars. Yet, the new administration immediately faces three critical fronts: Ukraine, the Middle East, and the South China Sea.

First Front: Ukraine
After three years of brutal conflict and over a million casualties, Ukraine is at an impasse. Trump, who has long deemed this war avoidable, sees little chance for Ukraine to win if victory means expelling Russian forces from the 20% of territory now claimed by the Kremlin. Ukraine is strained—short on soldiers, weaponry, and Western funds—while Russia, backed by Chinese, North Korean, and Iranian allies, forges ahead in war mode. Trump will need to urge Kyiv to relinquish the Donbas regions and Crimea and persuade Putin to cease further aggression. A new territorial status quo will likely take shape along a thousand-kilometer front line, even if unrecognized by Ukraine or the West, similar to the unrecognized division of Germany. The most challenging aspect will be securing Ukraine’s neutrality, a consistent Russian demand, along with international security guarantees for Ukraine, likely from Europe, as Trump’s priorities lie elsewhere.

Second Front: The Middle East
America remains deeply entangled in the Middle East, arguably more so than in Ukraine, with significant military assets on the ground even as control over the situation slips. Since October 7, 2023, Netanyahu has conducted a solo campaign in Gaza, disregarding repeated U.S. calls for a ceasefire. Ending the Gaza conflict, freeing hostages, aiding the population, and establishing new governance for the enclave are only part of the challenge. Trump will also face the need to neutralize Hezbollah, secure the Lebanese border, and, ideally, support a rebuilt Lebanon, free from Iranian influence. Crucially, he must prevent wider regional escalation, particularly any full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran, which risks directly involving the U.S. if Iranian nuclear facilities come under attack.

The Final Front: China
The ultimate competition for U.S. dominance is with China—a rivalry that will define the coming decades. Trump, keenly aware of this, sees China as America’s sole true competitor across political, economic, technological, financial, and now military dimensions. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s sweeping rearmament over the past two decades has solidified its power and created a formidable barrier against external forces, especially the U.S.—a modern “Xi Doctrine.” The Pentagon’s recent assessment of military buildup on Hainan Island, a once-idyllic Chinese vacation spot turned strategic stronghold, reveals the scale of China’s military ambitions, including naval bases, nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, and intercontinental missile silos.

For America, the pivot to Asia has arrived—signaling troubled times ahead for both the Ukrainian and Middle Eastern fronts.

By Pierre Lellouche

Editorial, 6/11/24