The Emirates: the Gulf’s “Little Sparta”

If the Iran war affected the world economy across the entire planet, it also caused the implosion of politico-military alliances in Europe, as in the Middle East.

In Europe, everyone has finally understood that the Americans are on their way out. Trump did not appreciate being “abandoned” by his allies, forgetting that he had not consulted them in any way before launching, on February 28, his bombing campaign against Iran. After disengaging from the war in Ukraine, he is now beginning the withdrawal of his GIs stationed in Europe, giving up on deploying Tomahawk cruise missiles that are nevertheless indispensable against Russia, and raising his customs duties despite an agreement — already leonine — concluded less than a year ago, all against a backdrop of unusually virulent verbal exchanges with Chancellor Mertz.

In the Gulf, the war has shattered the strategic alliance between the two main oil monarchies: the United Arab Emirates (UAE), led by Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ), and Saudi Arabia, led by the young Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). A rupture with major consequences for the future of the region and the Arab-Muslim world as a whole.

For a long time, the two Mohammeds had fought side by side, notably against the internal threat posed by Islamists during the Arab Springs at the beginning of the 2010s. Together, they had placed themselves under the protection of the United States in the face of the Iranian threat. But little by little, cracks appeared: in Libya, where the two petromonarchies support opposing camps; likewise in Sudan, where the Emirates — which deny it — are accused of supporting Hemmeti’s bloodthirsty Rapid Reaction Force against Al Burhan’s Sudanese army, which the Emirates consider to be infiltrated by Islamists; the same is true in Somaliland and, of course, in Yemen, where, after jointly carrying out aerial bombardments against the Iran-backed Houthis, the Saudis went so far as to bomb Emirati arms convoys intended for the southern separatists.

But it was the Iran war that caused the rupture, giving rise to two major axes within the Arab-Muslim world. For a long time, MBZ, trained at Sandhurst and by far the most experienced and thoughtful leader in the region on the great questions of geopolitics, on a par with Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, has been obsessed with the Iranian threat. It was he who asked, through me, Chirac — who refused — and then Sarkozy — who accepted — to build a French naval base, backed by an air and land presence in Abu Dhabi. As a “trip wire” in the event of an Iranian attack. And that attack came, targeting the UAE with 2,800 missiles and drones, even more than the strikes against Israel, these strikes continuing even during the ceasefire, against the oil facilities of Fujairah, on the other side of the strait. And MBZ was able to measure his country’s strategic solitude… whose air defense is provided by Israel’s technologies, including lasers. But “we have tough skin, and bitter flesh,” the emir says to Iran, while launching an investment fund dedicated to the arms industry in the UAE, and while Emirates posts insolent profits, despite the war.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia was moving closer to Pakistan — for now the only nuclear power in the Muslim world — signing with Islamabad a strategic mutual defense agreement in September 2025. It is the same Pakistan which, presenting itself as a mediator between Iran and the United States, asked Tehran not to strike Saudi facilities. MBZ did not appreciate it. On April 28, exactly two months to the day after the start of the conflict, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC, a decision the Saudi prince learned about only the following day, in the press… In the wake of this, MBZ demanded that Pakistan repay the 3.5 billion dollars deposited since 2018 with Islamabad’s Central Bank, to guarantee IMF facilities. A decision followed by other project cancellations — airports, telecoms. Immediately, Saudi Arabia rushed to Pakistan’s aid by providing it with 8 billion dollars… And the Emiratis recalled that they employ nearly two million Pakistanis at home, who send 9 billion dollars back to their country every year…

Two camps now stand face to face: the Emirates, convinced that the Iranian threat — nuclear and over Hormuz — is existential for them; they now make common cause with Israel and the United States. Saudi Arabia, on the other side, with Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, supporters of a diplomatic solution, Riyadh having even forbidden the use of its territory for Trump’s “Project Freedom” operation, which aimed to send the US Navy to escort merchant ships through the strait. Result: Trump was forced to cancel his operation 48 hours later, adding to the confusion… Such a division inevitably strengthens Iran’s weight in the region, and will also weigh on any possible follow-up to the Abraham Accords, as well as on the course of events in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza… As for the arms suppliers to both camps, they will have to display prodigies of diplomatic skill…

Pierre Lellouche
May 7, 2026