PUTIN – TRUMP: ONE PLAYS CHESS, THE OTHER PLAYS PICK-UP STICKS…

"End this horrible war in 24 hours": Donald Trump’s promise seems more illusory than ever in the wake of the long telephone conversation between the Russian and American Presidents on March 19.

Trump, the self-proclaimed and sole mediator of the Ukrainian conflict, had from the outset set the rules: the negotiation would be between him and Putin only, without Zelensky and without the Europeans—despite being his allies, and all directly affected.

During their first telephone exchange on February 12, Trump had even offered Putin, as a welcome gift, and in addition to his emphatic expressions of esteem and friendship, three major—and free (!)—concessions: no NATO for Ukraine, surrender of conquered territories to Russia, and exclusion of the Europeans from the negotiation table.

Despite the consternation and panic these initial moves caused across Europe, Trump, unfazed, pressed forward, taking full advantage of the shock effect.

The real substance of the matter remained.

The first part—Ukraine—was the easiest. Once Zelensky was publicly humiliated in the Oval Office on February 28, Trump merely had to suspend, for a few days, American arms deliveries and access to Pentagon intelligence for everything to grind to a halt. Kyiv, which until then had refused to negotiate without a position of strength, literally capitulated before its American protector. In an unprecedented development, Ukraine even accepted that its fate be negotiated without it, by a third-party state, directly with the aggressor. A veiled form of guardianship, then, leading to the announcement of an unconditional 30-day truce—a truce Zelensky had previously rejected, insisting instead on a genuine peace agreement with robust security guarantees.

As the cherry on top, Trump even secured privileged access to Ukrainian mineral resources—ironically, the very same rare earths that Kyiv had previously granted to the European Union under the terms of a little-known convention signed in Brussels on July 13, 2021… A clean sweep, then, for the self-styled “King of the Deal.”

Yet the other party, Russia, remained to be appeased—an altogether tougher nut to crack. For Marco Rubio, Trump’s novice Secretary of State, the ball was now in Putin’s court. It was his turn to play the game, and at the very least, to agree to the 30-day truce.

Alas, the Kremlin leader, a chess enthusiast, is in no hurry. While he must take care not to offend or worse, humiliate Trump by rejecting all his proposals outright, he also knows how to pocket his gains—and demand more. From a position of strength on the battlefield and largely impervious to the hundreds of American sanctions already in place, Russia offers little leverage for Trump’s pressure tactics.

Putin will thus make a small gesture by agreeing to a temporary suspension of strikes on energy infrastructure—but no more. As for the next step—a full ceasefire—Putin’s message is crystal clear: Trump will have to pay. By halting all military aid to Ukraine and securing the same from the Europeans.

The ball thus bounced—harshly—back into Trump’s court. He now faces two undesirable choices: either to approve Ukraine’s capitulation, triggering an open crisis with the Europeans who intend to continue their support for Kyiv, or to reject Russia’s demands and take strong action against Putin—additional sanctions, perhaps increased military aid to Kyiv—all things Trump is trying to avoid as he seeks a kind of global economic and strategic condominium with Russia.

How will Trump extricate himself from the trap he has set for himself—albeit with the help of his counterpart, Putin?

Hot-headed and unpredictable, Trump risks reacting as in a game of pick-up sticks: by abruptly pulling the wrong stick, causing the entire game to collapse…

Kissinger, come back—they’ve gone mad…

Pierre Lellouche

VA Opinion – 03/20/2025