MACRON-SCHOLZ: THE ZOMBIE PAIR

One has chosen dissolution, the other refuses it. But given their results in the European elections on June 9th, Macron and Scholz are now just two living dead on borrowed time… at the worst possible moment for the future of Europe.

The first aimed to resolve an unmanageable Assembly, where the lack of a majority had condemned him to inaction for two years. Convinced that dissolution would allow him to replay the presidential duel against Marine Le Pen, Macron "went all-in" like in poker. Alas, it is the united left that will occupy this challenger position against the RN, while the Macronists are doomed to third place, a prelude to their programmed disappearance. Nero watches Rome's flames before likely being forced to step down.

In Berlin, the defeat is even more glaring. The three coalition parties: Socialists, Greens, Liberals, agreeing on nothing, barely reach 31% compared to 30% for the CDU/CSU alone. The SPD, with 13.9%, achieves its lowest score since the foundation of the Federal Republic in 1949. Worse, the AfD, despite repeated scandals, has become the second political force in the country with 15.9%, and over 30% in the East. In Germany as in France, young people are flocking en masse to the far-right, deserting Renaissance and the SPD. But Scholz clings to the schedule, holding onto power until the 2025 elections. Unless a new debacle in the elections scheduled for the Eastern Länder in September precipitates his dismissal and replacement by Boris Pistorius, the defense minister.

It is noteworthy that in both cases, campaign slogans resurrecting Daladier and 1938 in France, and "For peace, vote SPD" in Germany, have fallen flat. The incompetence of the governments in place in dealing with immigration, inflation, and the precariousness of the poorest has made the difference in Paris as in Berlin.

The Franco-German rout comes at a bad time in this month of June when the "top jobs" of the EU are to be appointed, against the backdrop of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

In Brussels, the very unpopular and chaotic Ursula von der Leyen risks taking advantage of Macron's weakness to remain in her post, much to the dismay of all those who would have preferred the stature of a Mario Draghi.

In Bari, during the G7 summit held four days after the European elections, only Georgia Meloni triumphed. The "swan," as noted by the German press, facing the six other "lame ducks" moribund (Macron, Scholz, Biden, and Sunak) or very unpopular (Trudeau and Kishida). A strange team, in any case, to face the Putin-Xi alliance…

Zelensky, invited to Bari just before his "peace conference" in Switzerland, called the moment "historic," and pretended to believe in the total commitment of the West. Except that Biden offered him only a ten-year bilateral security agreement, but without a clear commitment on NATO membership. Meanwhile, the Europeans announced the opening of Ukraine's EU accession negotiations, even though everyone is well aware that the process will take years, if not decades, given the country's extreme state of disrepair.

Then there was the financial aspect: $50 billion will be loaned to Ukraine, which will be secured by the interests generated by the $300 billion in Russian sovereign funds seized in the West since 2022. And no matter if legally, this famous loan is more than shaky: as triumphantly announced by the still-president of the Commission: "it will cost the European taxpayer nothing"...

Putin must be enjoying this...

Pierre Lellouche

VA Editorial, 16/6/24