"A Territorial Partition of Ukraine Will Be Necessary"

You maintain that the war in Ukraine could have been avoided if we had heeded Russia's repeated warnings over the past thirty years. Who do you hold responsible for the failure of peace efforts?

Primarily the Americans, though the Europeans also share some of the blame. After Ukraine’s independence in 1991, both George H. W. Bush and François Mitterrand believed Ukraine should remain within Russia’s sphere of influence. In fact, they pushed for Ukraine to give up its Soviet nuclear arsenal. Later, we tried to get closer to Ukraine without taking Putin’s threats about NATO’s eastern expansion seriously. The Europeans, lacking coherence, failed to rearm while continuing to gorge themselves on Russian gas.

George W. Bush wanted to expand NATO to include Ukraine and Georgia. However, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, fully aware of the red line this represented for Putin, disagreed. Do you believe the Americans bear significant responsibility for the conflict in Georgia and then in Ukraine?

Yes. At the time, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili thought the Americans would support him in reclaiming South Ossetia and joining NATO, which ultimately led to the 2008 Russo-Georgian war that Tbilisi lost. After the invasion of Ukraine, Joe Biden also decided to do nothing but announce economic sanctions, convinced, like the Russians, that the matter would be settled in three days. However, Kyiv resisted heroically, gaining strong public support. Riding on his military’s successes, Zelensky sought to press his advantage, encouraged by Boris Johnson, who opposed any compromise with Russia. Johnson bears significant responsibility for the failure of negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow from February to April 2022.

As the situation on the ground deteriorates for Ukraine, what do you see as the basis for resuming negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow?

Putin wants Ukraine’s neutrality, believing that the country falls within Russia’s sphere of influence. Ultimately, a territorial partition of Ukraine will be necessary, while guaranteeing Kyiv's entry into the European Union, which the Russians had already accepted. Furthermore, the Americans no longer want Ukraine in NATO. Washington has shifted its focus to China and wants to leave the burden to the Europeans. However, due to their lack of will and financial means, the Europeans will struggle to integrate a devastated, militarized Ukraine. But the worst outcome would be to close the wound, leaving it infected.

You describe the Beijing-Tehran-Moscow-Pyongyang axis as the "syndicate of anti-Western dictatorships." What do you think has united these states against the West?

Thirty years ago, we hoped for decades of peace, but the opposite has happened. The war in Ukraine has metastasized, bringing together the four horsemen of the apocalypse, supported by the Global South, which has not joined the American sanctions and challenges our inconsistent values, as seen in both the Middle East and Ukraine.

Telegramme de Brest. October 24, 2024.

Former diplomatic advisor to Jacques Chirac and Secretary of State for European Affairs, Pierre Lellouche, reflects on the chain of events that led to the war in Ukraine and its consequences.

Interview by Pierre Coudurier.

Pierre Lellouche is the author of Engrenages, la guerre en Ukraine et le basculement du monde, published by Odile Jacob Geopolitics, €23.90.