Engrenage : When North Korea Joins the Ukraine Conflict

After spreading to the Middle East, where the same Iranian, Russian, and Chinese actors align against the United States behind the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the war in Ukraine has now extended to the Far East. This time, it’s through North Korea, Putin’s latest ally.

Pyongyang’s involvement in supplying weapons, with nearly five million 155mm shells and potentially KN-23 ballistic missiles sent to Russia, was already known. However, a new milestone has been reached with the announcement of North Korean troop deployments to Russia.

According to South Korean intelligence, North Korean soldiers have reportedly already arrived in Vladivostok, awaiting transfer westward to the Ukrainian front. Meanwhile, General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian intelligence, mentions the imminent arrival of 10,000 North Korean soldiers in the Donbas next month, with 2,600 more stationed in the Kursk region to repel Ukrainian incursions.

For now, the United States has not confirmed this information, merely noting that such a development would reflect the Russian army’s “desperate” state after “heavy losses” in recent months.

The figures are indeed alarming: after two and a half years of conflict, the war in Ukraine has caused one million casualties on both sides, with 280,000 Russian fatalities, 80,000 Ukrainian deaths, and around 400,000 wounded on each side. This toll excludes the destruction of 3,400 Russian tanks and 8,800 armored vehicles. American and British experts estimate that Russia’s incremental gains in the Donbas since September have come at a staggering cost of a thousand soldiers killed or wounded daily.

In this brutal war of attrition, with potential negotiations on the horizon in 2025, each side is working to fortify its position. Short on manpower, the Ukrainians hope for an invitation to join NATO and the provision of long-range American missiles, which Biden has thus far denied. Meanwhile, Putin aims to seize full control of the four Donbas oblasts already officially annexed. Yet to achieve this, he also needs troops while avoiding a politically dangerous general mobilization. He had promised as early as March 2022 not to send conscripts to the front: “I emphasize: soldiers in compulsory service do not and will not participate in combat operations.” This pledge is rooted in recent history: 15,000 young Russians were killed in Afghanistan between 1979 and 1989, and another 25,000 in the two Chechen wars from 1994 to 1999.

In Ukraine, only paid volunteers perish—along with, soon, North Koreans under a “Strategic Expanded Partnership Pact” signed by Putin and Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang on June 19. This agreement includes a mutual security clause committing each party to intervene “by any means” in the event of an attack on the other. Conveniently, this pact was submitted to the Duma for ratification just last week.

A further step in escalation is thus on the verge of being crossed. In this undeclared proxy war between NATO and Russia, each side, while supplying vast amounts of weaponry, has so far refrained from deploying foreign troops directly into the Ukrainian cauldron. When Emmanuel Macron suggested such a move last February, he met immediate rejection from the Americans (and the Germans). The arrival of North Koreans on the battlefield risks reigniting this debate, drawing us closer to the brink of a wider confrontation…

Pierre Lellouche - VA Tribune, October 22, 2024