SYRIA: SINWAR'S LAST DOMINO

By unleashing his pogrom on October 7, 2023, Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, pursued three main objectives: to deal a military defeat to Israel and demonstrate the Jewish state's vulnerability to the world, to draw Hezbollah into escalating a regional war across the Middle East, and, diplomatically, to derail the Abraham Accords and the normalization process between Israel and the Gulf monarchies.

The arsonist succeeded beyond his expectations. Like a cascade of falling dominoes, Sinwar managed to drag Hezbollah, Lebanon, the Houthis of Yemen, and even Tehran, the nerve center of the "Axis of Resistance," into his Gaza war. Moreover, the scale of the destruction in Gaza by Israeli airstrikes allowed Sinwar to bring the Palestinian cause back to the forefront of international debate, while dangerously isolating Israel on the global stage.

What Sinwar did not anticipate, however, was the effectiveness of the Israeli response—not only against him (he was killed), but also against his allies, who were similarly eliminated or severely weakened in Beirut and Tehran. This has led to another domino, also an ally of the Palestinians and Iran, collapsing in just ten days: Bashar al-Assad's Syria.

Until now, Syria had been divided into three major zones following more than 12 years of civil war:

• In the north, a zone controlled by Turkey, housing most rebel factions, including jihadist groups such as the main one, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), in Idlib.
• In the northeast, a Kurdish-controlled area, antagonistic to both the Turks and the Syrian regime but protected by the United States.
• In the south, the area held by Bashar al-Assad's regime, supported by Russia and Iran.

What has happened in recent days is nothing less than the abrupt collapse of this territorial balance. Anti-Assad forces launched a lightning surprise offensive toward the south of the country, capturing Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, in just three days, followed by advances on Hama, Homs, and eventually Damascus.

The offensive took full advantage of Hezbollah's weakened forces, which were redeployed to Lebanon to fight Israel, and of the withdrawal of a significant portion of Russian air power sent to the Ukrainian front. As for Turkey, it undoubtedly encouraged the operation, in retaliation for Assad’s refusal to allow Ankara to establish a buffer zone along the Turkish border, where it aims to relocate the four million Syrian refugees currently on its soil.

Deprived of external support, Assad’s regime, now faltering, could not withstand the onslaught of around twenty jihadist militias, including ISIS, the Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun Brigades, the Free Syrian Army, and the ultimate victor, HTS under Abu Muhammad al-Julani's leadership.

With Syria’s collapse following Lebanon’s, the territorial division of 1916 between France and Britain—the infamous Sykes-Picot Agreement—seems to be dying its final death before the eyes of regional powers preparing the next partition. Turkey and Iran are now at odds, with Israel striving to block the flow of weapons from Tehran, and Gulf monarchies opposing a Syria controlled by either Sunni jihadists or Iran-aligned Shia factions.

In 2011, at the start of the "Arab Spring," everyone wanted to oust Assad in hopes of building a democratic Syria. Today, it is jihadist militias, some stemming from al-Qaeda and ISIS, that have seized Damascus by force. This is a blow to Iran, forced to evacuate its military advisors, and to Russia, which will struggle to maintain its Tartus and Hmeimim bases. A new partition of Syria will likely emerge from the current chaos. But this time, Europe, conspicuously absent, will not play a role, hoping only to shield itself from the terrorist threats that could arise from Syria’s new disorder.

Pierre Lellouche

Tribune VA, December 8, 2024