THREE YEARS OF WAR IN UKRAINE: ALL THIS FOR THAT?

I have repeatedly stated—long before it even began—that the war in Ukraine could have been avoided. That it could even have been stopped as early as April 2022. That instead of preparing for the failed "great offensive" of June 2023, Ukraine and its allies should have negotiated—before finding themselves in a far worse situation, just as the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, predicted in late 2022.

Now, here we are—almost at the endgame.

Back in the White House, Trump is determined to end this war, which he deems "ridiculous." Bilateral negotiations have already begun with the Russians—without the Ukrainians and without the Europeans. With the halt in U.S. arms deliveries, the war, according to former Pentagon chiefs under Biden, cannot last beyond 2025. Even Zelensky acknowledges this.

For what result?

The fundamental cause of this war dates back to Ukraine's independence in 1991, with a central question left unanswered: What status for this country between East and West? Neutrality, as the Russians insisted from Gorbachev to Putin? NATO membership, as Ukrainians have aspired to since their first Maidan in 2003? Or a "bridge" between the two? Americans and Europeans never knew—or never wanted—to decide.

The grim irony of this war is that it has killed or wounded a million soldiers on both sides (!) and devastated an entire country—for nothing.

Neither Obama, nor Biden, nor Trump wanted—or want—Ukraine in NATO, despite all proclamations about "the Ukrainians' sovereign right to choose their alliances." Simply put, Americans—Biden and Trump alike—have no appetite for a third world war with Russia. As a result, the question of "security guarantees" for Ukraine remains unresolved to this day.

The other dark irony is that just as they prepare to abandon the Europeans to their fate, the United States emerges as the great winner of this war. It has made tens of billions of dollars selling weapons and natural gas to Europe, expanded NATO across Scandinavia and the Baltic, and, as Washington Post columnist David Ignatius cynically puts it, "bled the Russian army dry without losing a single soldier—leaving the butcher's bill to the Ukrainians." Even better, they now demand to be "reimbursed" in Ukrainian rare earth minerals.

The Ukrainians, meanwhile, pay the heaviest price.

Their population, 52 million at the time of independence in 1991, has shrunk to just 28–30 million today, due to economic emigration after independence and then war refugees since 2014. Ukraine now holds the tragic records of the highest mortality rate and the lowest birth rate in the world. As for its economy—already the poorest in Europe before the war (just ahead of Kosovo)—it has lost $120 billion since 2022 and will need $1 trillion for reconstruction.

Russia, for its part, has managed to bypass 16 rounds of Western sanctions by selling gas and oil to China and India. But today, it is nothing more than a vassal of China. Its army has performed poorly, managing only to nibble away at Ukrainian territory at the cost of massive losses—while Ukraine holds firm. Worse, Russia has only strengthened NATO, uniting against it a Ukrainian nation forged in war. Not everyone can be Peter the Great…

And then there are the Europeans. Having followed Biden without a clear war objective—driven only by emotion and outrage—they now find themselves, facing Trump, as the great losers of the operation. They have poured €150 billion into aid for Ukraine, lost cheap Russian gas, and abandoned tens of billions in investments in Russia—only to be excluded from the looming Trump-Putin Yalta. As for Macron's idea of sending troops to Ukraine, it would require American protection and Russian acquiescence—both far from reality. For Europe, everything remains to be done—starting with real rearmament instead of the usual Brussels rhetoric about an illusory "European defense."

The question remains: Will the sleepwalking leaders who led us into this disaster know how to get us out of it?

Pierre Lellouche
Tribune VA, 27/2/25