Ukraine: A Triple Deadlock

Now entering its fourth year, the war in Ukraine is tragically mired in a triple impasse.

First, the military one: despite a million killed or maimed on both sides, the war shows no sign of delivering a decisive victory for either. The Ukrainian army, desperately short of manpower and now running low on weapons (the $61 billion aid pledged by Biden is nearly exhausted), can no longer claim to recapture Crimea or the two-thirds of Donbas that Russia has seized and annexed. Conversely, the Russians have abandoned any ambition to conquer all of Ukraine. At the cost of significant losses, the Russian army has only managed to slowly retake the Khorsk salient in the north (won by Ukraine last summer) and make slow advances southward against Ukrainian defensive lines that remain intact. Worst of all, both sides remain convinced that victory is still possible…

Second, the political deadlock: despite Trump’s thunderous return in February, hopes for a swift settlement have been futile. Zelensky has endured public humiliation in the Oval Office, relinquished key mining assets to the Americans in hopes of maintaining a hope‑against‑hope security link with Washington—yet failed to secure the vital cease‑fire that Trump was supposed to wrest from Putin. Meanwhile, Ukrainian civilians continue to die daily…

As for the Kremlin’s boss, he heaped public praise on his new American friend who indeed showered him with gifts: Ukraine’s permanent exclusion from NATO and recognition of Crimea’s annexation—all in exchange for nothing. And yet Putin has not budged an inch: he still demands settlement of the conflict’s “deep causes,” meaning Ukraine’s partial demilitarization and, more broadly, a new military order in Central Europe, with NATO forces pulled as far from Russian borders as possible. These demands are unacceptable to Zelensky and the vast majority of Ukrainians. The rupture is total between the two protagonists, each backed by their respective public opinion.

Third, the diplomatic impasse: At a summit in Kyiv on May 10, the leaders of Europe’s four major powers believed they could force Putin into cease‑fire talks by issuing an ultimatum: starting Monday, May 12, it was to be either a cease‑fire—or unprecedented sanctions, at which Trump appeared to purse weak support at the last minute.

But Putin deftly retaliated that very evening, announcing he was willing to negotiate the following Thursday in Istanbul—a surprise, highly mediated meeting immediately backed by Trump… and then by Zelensky, who even pledged to attend personally in hopes of negotiating directly with Putin. The ploy worked: Europe’s ultimatum collapsed, as did the theatre of negotiations in Istanbul.

To cap this spectacular diplomacy puppet show, Trump promised to “settle it all himself” via a lengthy phone call to Putin the next Monday… again, with no result.

This time, Trump seems to have grasped the situation and is preparing to step aside completely: “This war is a European matter and should have remained so.”

A nightmare scenario looms for Europeans, now condemned to pick up where the United States left off—without the means. Without Congressional approval, the maximalist sanctions dreamed up by Mr. Barrot—who wants to “make Russia bleed” (sic)—will be worthless. And as for sustaining Ukraine’s war effort: how, when European arsenals are depleted and money scarce? Hence the revival of the idea to seize €200 billion in Russian assets—a move opposed only by France.

Europe, in all this, hasn’t finished paying for its blind deference to Biden in 2022—and now under Trump.

One small consolation for current European leaders: last Sunday, Romania—a crucial neighbor of Ukraine—did not fall under the control of populists, unlike Slovakia (Fico) and Hungary (Orbán).

Now, Europeans must finally reconsider the soundness of their policies since this war began...

— Pierre Lellouche – VA, May 21, 2025