TWELVE DAYS OF WAR—WHAT NEXT?

The Six-Day War, from 5 to 10 June 1967, marked Israel’s first major military triumph over the Arab armies (Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Jordan), united against the Jewish state. Fifty-eight years later, no Arab state joined in the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran, despite the ongoing brutal military operation by the IDF in Gaza since the mass pogrom of October 2023.

The climax of this war—and its conclusion—were dictated by a single man: Donald Trump. For the first time, the United States directly participated in a war fought by Israel. And for the first time, they alone secured a ceasefire after twelve days of airstrikes and missile campaigns.

This war, which ended without Iran's surrender or complete dismantling of its nuclear program, nevertheless produced two clear winners: Netanyahu and Trump, and two major losers: Iran and the Europeans.

On the winners’ side, the Israeli prime minister managed to atone for his strategic blunders in Gaza, where he allowed Hamas to prepare for—and destroy—the costly electronic barrier meant to protect nearby Israeli towns. Since then, Iran’s “proxies” have been systematically eradicated: Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, the Houthis—before moving on to methodically dismantle Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities. Never has Israel appeared so militarily dominant in the region—some even call it “hegemonic.” I believe that’s overstated, given the region’s demographic realities and, more importantly, Israel’s political deadlock, which prevents it from preparing a long-term political solution for coexisting with a prospective Palestinian state. Tactical gains do not make a strategy…

Trump is the other big winner. Without him, the Israelis couldn’t have destroyed Iran’s deeply buried Fordo facilities—the war risked grinding into a stalemate, prone to escalation. With his billion‑dollar B‑2 bombers and 14‑ton super‑bunker‑busting bombs, Trump got the job done—without seeking Congress’s approval or consulting the UN or his allies, except Israel and perhaps the UK. As those B‑2s prepared to take off from Missouri to strike Iran—an 18‑hour flight—the French president and his wife were celebrating Fête de la Musique and “Paris Music Week” at the Élysée. Days earlier, at the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada, Macron had believed Trump’s departure was timed to accelerate talks with Iran, prompting an unflattering response along the lines of, “Macron always says nonsense…”

By securing a ceasefire for both sides the day after the strike, Trump reinforces his image as a global sheriff—irascible, unpredictable, yet ruthlessly effective. He arrives at the NATO summit in The Hague the following Tuesday as a victor, preceded by unusually flattering praise from NATO Secretary-General Dutchman Mark Rutte: “Congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran. It was truly extraordinary and something no one else had dared to do… You’re flying toward another great success.” A message Trump promptly retweeted.

That message says a lot about the losers. Europe, first, haunted by the fear of an American withdrawal, unable to exit the Ukraine war without Washington’s help, promising defense budgets of 5% of GDP just to please Trump—goals only Poland or Germany might realistically reach. Yet Europe criticises, like France, this “preventive American war” and “violation of international law”—ironically echoing Kremlin rhetoric. Have we forgotten that Iranian drones have been striking Ukraine for three-and-a-half years? Or that Iran itself violated the 2015 JCPOA and the Non-Proliferation Treaty by accumulating hundreds of kilos of near‑military‑grade uranium? Only Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, had the courage and honesty to admit that the Americans had done “the dirty work” for everyone else—us Europeans included, who are also threatened by the prospect of a nuclear Iran.

What remains of Iran? The other loser: militarily weakened by Israeli strikes and the loss of its Shiite buffer. But for the mullahs, the real priority is survival—and keeping open the option to resume their nuclear program someday. Meanwhile, Tehran will negotiate to lift sanctions and, as always, buy itself time…

Pierre Lellouche
25 June 2025