COLLATERAL DAMAGE

Unintentional humor? Donald Trump chose April 1st—April Fool’s Day—to try to reassure the American people about his war in Iran. Listening to him, everything is going for the best: the Iranian regime has been “annihilated,” along with most of its navy and air force; the war itself will be over in two or three weeks, after one last round of intensive bombing that will bring Iran back to “the Stone Age, where that country deserves to be…”

Reassurance was needed. At least 60% of American public opinion is hostile to the war, and even more so (75%) to sending ground troops. The politically very sensitive threshold of $4 per gallon of gasoline (4 liters) has been crossed, and markets are extremely nervous about the risk of inflation and slowing growth. “We are only on the 32nd day of the war,” Trump argued, recalling that previous American wars, from Vietnam to Afghanistan, lasted for years.

Two or three weeks is the time estimated by intelligence services to eliminate what remains (around a hundred, it is said) of Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones. An estimate based on the 90% drop observed in the number of Iranian strikes on neighboring Arab countries. But what about what comes next?

What comes next, unfortunately, looks like a dead end—and a dead end burdened with at least four collateral damages, each as dangerous as the next.

The first concerns the fate of Iran’s military nuclear program, which this war was supposed to eliminate once and for all. Yet, while Iranian facilities have been heavily damaged, they can be rebuilt and, above all, 450 kilograms of military-grade uranium are still somewhere in Iran, likely in deeply buried tunnels—now probably sealed. Not only has the Iranian regime not renounced the bomb, but it is hinting that Iran is preparing to withdraw from the non-proliferation treaty. If that is the case, one should expect other powers in the region (the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt) to do everything possible to acquire nuclear weapons as well.

The second collateral damage is none other than the destruction of the region’s security system. Since 1945, the deal between the oil monarchies and the United States was simple: oil in exchange for security—a security guaranteed by the Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain, and by a network of military bases across several countries in the region, notably Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Yet for a month now, the wealthy Gulf monarchies have been subjected daily to hundreds of missile strikes, cruelly highlighting the extraordinary fragility of these countries: mirages of modernity and luxury set upon shifting sand. To make matters worse, American bases themselves—as well as those of France and Italy—have been attacked by Iran or its allies in Iraq. How can trust be rebuilt between the United States and its former Arab protégés when, like the Saudi crown prince, Arab leaders are told to “kiss Donald Trump’s ass”?

Third collateral damage—and a major one: the future of NATO. While Trump has never had much affection for NATO and has long believed that Europeans have “ripped off the American taxpayer” by benefiting from free security, this time the break seems definitive. Trump does not forgive European leaders—unanimous in their stance—for loudly proclaiming that “this war was not Europe’s war” and that they have “no intention of being dragged into a war chosen by the United States without consultation with any of its allies.” Not only is Trump hinting that he is considering cutting military aid to Ukraine (which is nonetheless paid for by Europeans), but he is even contemplating simply leaving the Atlantic Alliance altogether, which would completely dismantle the security system in Europe… much to Russia’s benefit, already a winner thanks to the Iran war, as it is now selling its oil at high prices. “Try to find some courage and go get your oil yourselves,” Donald Trump tells his European counterparts, openly mocking them—Emmanuel Macron serving here as the primary scapegoat.

This brings us to the fourth and final collateral damage: the Strait of Hormuz. Its blockade gives Iran extraordinary power, equivalent to a second atomic bomb—namely, the ability to hold the entire global economy hostage. Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the National Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament, has already warned: “The Strait of Hormuz will certainly reopen, but not for you; it will reopen for those who submit to Iranian law and pay a toll.”

Already, the closure of the strait during the second quarter of 2026 will lead, according to the OECD, to a 0.5% decline in global GDP, 0.75% in Europe, and 0.95% in Asia-Pacific—the region most dependent on Gulf hydrocarbons.

Overall, if the Iran war were to end with the maintenance of a vengeful and nuclear regime in Tehran, controlling the jugular of the global economy, along with the breakdown of the security pact in the region and the implosion of the Atlantic Alliance, then the consequences of this war would be extremely grave and potentially historic.

Pierre Lellouche
April 3, 2026