Iran-Ukraine: Spirals

In my latest book, Engrenages, (Spirals in English, to be published) I described how the war in Ukraine risked “metastasizing” into the Middle East in the aftermath of the mass pogrom of October 7, through its effects on the Russo-Iranian military alliance and its consequences for the global energy market, with both countries—among the leading producers of hydrocarbons—being under sanctions.

With the air war launched on February 28 by the United States and Israel against the regime in Tehran, the two fronts are now inextricably linked and, unfortunately for us, Europe is on the front line in both cases, without the means to truly influence the ongoing conflicts, condemned to endure their consequences as best it can.

The military link

The most visible link is military. Before the war with Iran, Tehran had generously helped Moscow by sending Shahed 136 drones. Today, the Russians are returning the favor by delivering the same drones, produced in Russia at a rate of 1,000 units per day, but improved in terms of guidance, explosive payloads, jamming of enemy defenses and, above all, operational tactics (in swarms) to increase their effectiveness.

The Russians are also sharing their satellite intelligence on targets, particularly American ones in the region, thereby repaying the Americans in kind, as they assist in targeting Ukrainian drones launched against Russian territory. The delivery of Verba surface-to-air missiles is also planned… For now, the Americans are letting it happen…

The energy shock

On the energy front, the spiral is even more problematic, especially for Europeans. After the invasion of Ukraine, Europe—except for Hungary and Slovakia—gave up Russian oil and gas. It therefore turned to American and especially Qatari LNG. Except that Iran has struck production sites in Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.

Many of these facilities are now shut down and will require several months before restarting… after the end of the fighting… In the meantime, rising hydrocarbon prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a windfall for Russia—will have major consequences for our economies and for the most vulnerable European populations: from employees who must use their vehicles to get to work, to transport operators, farmers, fishermen, and the chemical industry.

A sign of the surrounding chaos: Europeans are seizing Russian “ghost” tankers, while Washington is lifting sanctions on that very oil to calm the markets…

NATO under strain

Then comes politics, and the future of NATO in particular. For Europeans, the only war that matters is the one in Ukraine, which they are now alone in financing. The war with Iran, meanwhile, “is not our war,” as all European leaders have proclaimed in unison, from Mertz to Macron, via Starmer and Ms. Kallas, the EU’s “foreign minister.” An incredibly short-sighted attitude toward the problem we face.

First difficulty: the Trump administration, which does not need Gulf hydrocarbons, considers itself betrayed by its allies, says so loudly, and threatens to draw consequences regarding the future of the Atlantic Alliance. Among the ideas being considered for the next NATO summit: “pay for play.” Only those states that meet Trump’s imposed target of 5% in military spending would have the right to vote on Alliance decisions. Today, only five Nordic countries and Poland are above 3%...

Another issue: the Pentagon is set to send to the Gulf—where there is a great need for munitions and especially air defense capabilities—the weapons systems initially intended for Ukraine (and already funded by Europeans to the tune of $600 million). Illustration. Another piece of good news for Russia, which fires up to a thousand Shahed drones at Ukraine in a single day… while the Ukrainian army has just signed a military cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia in the field of counter-drone warfare…

Finally, and above all, it is difficult for Europe to claim neutrality in the Middle East when its bases in the region are attacked by Iran, when Iran claims to “privatize” the Strait of Hormuz for its sole benefit, and when it announces its intention to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty while European capitals are within range of Iranian missiles.

The Emirates, our partners and allies in the region, are speaking of urgently creating “an international security force” to reopen the strait, while the Saudi Sultan Al Jabber is telling the White House that “Iran has taken Hormuz hostage, and all countries will have to pay a ransom: at the pump, at the grocery store, or at the pharmacy.”

It is far from certain that diplomacy or neutrality are viable options in the face of the Tehran regime, which has decided to pursue its scorched-earth strategy to the end.

Pierre Lellouche — 03/28/2026