India, a Troublesome Partner

The Washington Post has revealed a delicate matter, potentially very embarrassing for the U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific.

Prime Minister Modi's close circle, specifically his National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, allegedly ordered in June 2023 the assassination on U.S. soil of the main leader of the Sikh community in the United States, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American citizen. The agent tasked with the operation, Nikhil Gupta, an arms and drug trafficker, was arrested in Prague at the end of June 2023 at the request of U.S. authorities. Charged with attempted murder, he awaits extradition to the United States. It appears Gupta did not complete his mission, as on June 18, 2023, another Sikh leader, Hardeep Singh Viggar, a Canadian citizen, was shot dead in front of a Sikh temple in British Columbia. Both leaders knew each other and campaigned together for an independent Sikh state in Punjab, northern India, known as "Khalistan". They were both considered "terrorists" by India's RAW (Research and Analysis Wing).

In Canada, the case caused a major uproar. In September 2023, Prime Minister Trudeau openly accused the Indian government, "with evidence," of executing "a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil, an unacceptable breach of our sovereignty." The expulsion of diplomats and freezing of certain trade agreements followed, complicating matters for Canadians already in a dispute with China over the Huawei affair.

The American extension of this case is much more problematic. For years, the U.S. has tried to build a strategic anti-China alliance in the Indian Ocean with Delhi, a rival of Beijing but fiercely non-aligned. Modi was given a rare state visit to Washington, with a grand reception at the White House on June 22, 2023, just as the Indian services were taking action in Canada and preparing to do so in the U.S.

American justice took up the case in November, with names of several high-ranking Indian officials leaking. This occurred as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin highlighted before Congress the importance of the strategic relationship with India and cooperation in armaments, including the co-production of GE fighter jet engines with Hindustan Aeronautics and negotiations for about thirty Reaper drones. Meanwhile, India joined the Quad, the Asia-Pacific military alliance set up by Washington with Japan and Australia. The U.S. also needs India on the Ukrainian front. Modi refrained from condemning Russia (India's main military partner) and has become the main importer of Russian oil under the U.S. embargo: 2 million barrels/day imported at low cost, then re-exported at high prices to Europe as diesel.

This situation embarrasses the Biden administration. The world's largest democracy is currently in the midst of an election (1 billion voters until May 15), but it is uncertain if this will impress American judges: a syndicate of wrongdoers has developed a habit of eliminating its opponents in democratic countries, which is increasingly unacceptable; a syndicate that includes China, Turkey, Tajikistan, Russia, Egypt, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, India, and Rwanda. A warning to opponents...