Idées et analyses sur les dynamiques politiques et diplomatiques.
19 Septembre 2025
OPINION - France's recognition of Palestine comes at a time when the isolation of Israel, its denunciation, and the stigmatization of Jews in general, whether they support Netanyahu's policies or not, are reaching unprecedented levels, notes the former minister*.
* Latest book published: Engrenages. La guerre d’Ukraine et le basculement du monde. (Éditions Odile Jacob, 2024).
We are living in the East and beyond at a turning point in history, where the very legitimacy of Israel is now openly contested, where the fate of Jews around the world is once again in question. The starting point is of course October 7.
At the risk of shocking, I personally believe that the political and military leader of Hamas at the time, Yahya Sinwar , in fact won a quadruple political victory by launching this massive attack against Israel: first, he managed to put the Palestinian question back at the heart of the problems of the Middle East ; as he had probably anticipated, the brutal Israeli response, given the small size of an urban territory of more than 2 million people serving as human shields for an army buried in a veritable underground city, could only lead to the almost unanimous denunciation of the Israeli bombings, to the point that Israel is today commonly referred to as a "genocidal" state ; Israel's relations with the Arab world are seriously damaged, as they are beginning to be with many Western countries, with the exception of the United States ; finally, anti-Semitism has become globalized after two years of war.
It is in this context that we must consider the initiative taken by President Macron, in conjunction with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, to solemnly recognize the State of Palestine in a few days, on September 22.
Because, before getting to the substance of it, we must consider the timing of this initiative, which is essential in both political and diplomatic matters. President Macron announced that with this initiative, he had opened "an irreversible path to peace."
However, Mr. Macron cannot ignore the fact that his initiative comes at a time when, after two years of war in Gaza, the isolation of Israel, its denunciation, and the stigmatization of Jews in general, whether or not they support Netanyahu's policies, are reaching unprecedented levels.
As we approach the now fateful date of September 22, a date that coincides nicely with the Jewish New Year, a massive anti-Israeli mobilization, unprecedented I repeat, is spreading across the entire planet, also fueled, it is true, by the Israeli military escalation in Gaza, in the West Bank, not to mention the Israeli air raid against the Hamas leaders in Doha. We are experiencing a sort of tragic race against time: war on one side, anti-Israel mobilization on the other.
So here, by a disastrous reversal of history, is the State of Israel, born of the genocide of the Jews and the will of the international community, transformed in turn into a "Nazi" state, threatened from then on with finding itself delegitimized by the international community which had brought it into being in 1948.
How can we not see then that, in the current climate, further aggravated by the decision of the Israeli government to launch a ground offensive against the city of Gaza, the announced recognition can only add to the isolation of Israel, to its stigmatization, and even more seriously to that of all Jews?
If the objective was to make Israel a pariah state, a sort of second apartheid state, banished by the community of so-called "civilized" nations, then this objective is about to be achieved, at the risk of radicalizing Israel's policy even more... But if it was to advance peace, as Mr. Macron proclaimed, then one can legitimately doubt the result.
All the more so because beyond the timing, there is the substance.
In the initial version of April 2025, recognition was to follow and not precede the fulfillment of three cardinal conditions: the eradication of the bloodthirsty Hamas regime, its total demilitarization, coupled of course with the immediate release of the last hostages; secondly, the in-depth overhaul of the Palestinian Authority to make it capable of governing thenfuture Palestine ; thirdly, finally, this recognition was to be mutual, involving the Arab states, starting with Saudi Arabia. Thus conceived, this project had real coherence.
Shelved because of the Twelve Day War with Iran , the project was reworked in July.
The recognition of Palestine now no longer requires anything from Hamas, not even the release of the hostages. A Hamas whose charter, I recall, expressly states that this organization is Islamist and in no way nationalist, that it is fighting not for a Palestinian state, but for the total eradication of Israel.
Thus disfigured, the recognition desired by Macron is of course completely inaudible in Israel, forever marked by October 7.
Moreover, by no longer asking the Arab states for cross-recognition of Israel, the Macronian initiative only isolates Israel further, while threatening the sustainability of the Abraham Accords . These accords, I remind you, had opened a process of rapprochement with Israel, without any Palestinian prerequisite, which is precisely why Hamas, armed by Iran, attacked on October 7.
Of these conditions, all that remains today is a list of pious wishes contained in a resolution adopted by 142 states a few days ago in New York, under the pompous title of "New York Declaration on the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution ."
This resolution, of course non- binding, stipulates that Hamas "must cease exercising its authority over the Gaza Strip " ... that it must hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority with the support and collaboration of the international community ... that it must finally release the hostages. But this after the recognition of September 22. Now everyone knows the value of such resolutions...
On September 22, Palestine will be unconditionally recognized by France. It is already recognized by more than 150 states, and Palestine has observer status at the UN. The question is: how does this additional symbolic recognition serve the cause of peace, or even the "two-state solution," which has been the European position since the Venice Declaration of 1978? Will it secure the departure of the Hamas leadership and its demilitarization?
Will it make the Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas more capable of leading a future State of Palestine?
Will it convince an isolated, politically besieged Israeli state, still threatened by the mullahs' regime and its Arab proxies, to finally consider defining its borders, which would, incidentally, require, I say, the end of proportional representation in Israel?
As for France, I fear that this recognition and its instrumentalization by certain political forces will only serve to tear even more the fragile cultural and religious fabric that our French nation has unfortunately become.
At least this spectacular diplomatic exercise will have allowed the French president to forget, for a few hours at least, his equally mediocre results in domestic politics.
By Pierre Lellouche
Paris, Friday, September 19th