UKRAINE: NEGOTIATION OR ESCALATION?

What was bound to happen has happened. Panic has gripped European capitals: Trump is back, and now what? What will become of NATO? Most importantly, what will happen to Ukraine if Trump, behind our backs, strikes a “deal” with Putin?

In April 2022, Europeans and Americans committed to supporting Ukraine together “for as long as it takes.” In reality, that commitment was contingent on the Americans leading and, above all, financing this undeclared proxy war between NATO and Russia. However, Trump’s election radically shifts the equation.

Entering the fourth year of war, no one truly believes in a Ukrainian victory anymore—at least not if “victory” means expelling Russian forces from the 20% of Ukrainian territory they occupy and that Moscow has already annexed. Russia is intensifying its bombardments to break the resolve of the Ukrainian people and, in an unprecedented move, has brought North Korean troops onto the battlefield.

So, what now?

Kyiv tried to secure leverage this summer by advancing into Russian territory in the Khursk region. But while bold, the maneuver yielded little and only further weakened Ukraine’s already stretched defensive lines.

Two options remain: either continue the war, hoping to outlast Russia before Ukraine and its allies themselves falter, or cut losses and agree to a ceasefire as a prelude to peace negotiations—risking, however, cementing Putin’s victory.

Continuing the war is Zelensky’s stance, seemingly supported by a majority of Ukrainians who refuse to entertain territorial concessions. On this front are Poland, the Scandinavians, and French leaders like Macron, who insist on “preventing Russia from winning this war.” The fear, as voiced by France’s new foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot, is that a Russian victory would endanger Europe and even the world by ushering in a wave of “Putinization.” But how can the war continue without American support?

Trump wants out—and fast! He aims to extricate the U.S. from the Ukrainian quagmire and leave Ukraine’s reconstruction and future security solely to Europe. Trump dislikes wars; he’s focused on “business” for America’s benefit and has other priorities abroad, starting with China. He even let his son Donald Jr. tweet a warning to a shocked Zelensky: “You’ve got 38 days before your allowance runs out.”

In this rapidly evolving scenario, the first surprise has come from Olaf Scholz, until now Kyiv’s main European backer. Germany’s chancellor, whose government collapsed the very day of Trump’s election due to coalition disagreements over emergency aid to Ukraine, now faces a public increasingly in favor of swift peace. With snap elections set for February, Scholz has reached out to Putin—their first contact in two years—a move that signals the death knell of any hypothetical European unity against Trump. Without Washington or Berlin, continuing the war becomes impossible. Zelensky recognizes this, interpreting Germany’s shift as the opening of Pandora’s box. More calls of this nature are likely to follow.

The second surprise comes from Biden, thought to be sidelined. Two months before leaving the White House—and just 48 hours after Scholz’s call to Putin—Biden finally acceded to Zelensky’s repeated pleas. The U.S. has authorized long-range ATCMS missiles for use deep within Russian territory, likely targeting the Khursk region, where 10,000 North Korean troops have recently been deployed.

Caught between inevitable negotiations and potential escalation, the war in Ukraine has arguably reached its most perilous apex in three years.

Pierre Lellouche

Tribune VA 14/11/24